Patna: The Bihar Assembly elections second phase is the largest of the three phases will go to the polls on Tuesday could be make or break for both alliances. The Bihar is going to poll 94 seats today.

The fact that the home districts of both CM Nitish Kumar and his long standing rival Lalu Prasad are part of this phase adds an extra edge to the contest. BJP, JD (U) and RJD had all got a higher share of the vote in this area in 2015. It is an indication that this is really the territory of the big three parties in Bihar politics. BJP’s 25.9% vote share did not quite yield a commensurate bag of seats with the alliance logic working against it and the BJP had a settle for just 20 seats here, half of those coming from Patna district alone.

Considering that this phase is the most urbanized of the three including Patna, Bhagalpur, Danapur, Chhpra, Begusarai and Barauni BJP would normally be expected to do much better. It would hope that last time was an aberration and the alliance with JD (U) and the some smaller parties will add significantly to its tally. For the JD (U), this was the area where it had its strongest showing five years back, winning of 30 seats and a 17.3 % vote share. Several of its Ministers too are in the contest in this phase.

Reports from the ground suggest that the Chief Minister is facing a tough battle against anti- incumbency and that LJP candidates are in many seats playing spoiler for JD (U) candidates an intent that Chirag Paswan has made no secret of. It would hope that the alliance with the BJP would compensate for these. This phase is, for the Congress, the one with the least at stake. The party won only seven of its 27 seats in the last Assembly elections from this area and had a vote share of fewer than 5%. To that extent there is not much to lose here.